Columbus, Ga (WRBL)- The 2024 hurricane season began on June 1st and all signs point to an active season. NOAA predicts that 17-25 names storms could occur this year which is well above the average 14. They also predict 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes.
Meteorologist Nicole Phillips talked with the lead seasonal forecaster for NOAA to get more insight. Matt Rosencrans, the lead seasonal forecaster for NOAA, is one of eight forecasters who studies and compiles the seasonal outlooks.
"We start with monitoring the conditions in the Atlantic Ocean, the sea-surface temperatures, the pacific ocean, the state of El Niño and La Niña and then we'll use statistical tools either progression or AI, we're testing AI right now and then some of the forecast models we let them run out for nine-ten months into the future."
The 2024 Atlantic season, which runs through November 30th will have several contributing factors such as extremely warm ocean temperatures and La Niña.
"The going into a La Niña, which reduces the wind shear and helps with the moisture profiles and stability making it more conducive in the Atlantic. The record warmth sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic main development region are 2-3 degrees above normal now and they have been this entire calendar year" says Rosencrans.
La Niña is when waters in the equatorial pacific begin to cool and warmer waters begin to push toward the Philippines. While it may not seem like much, this plays a big factor in global winds.
"That changes wind patterns on the entire planet because you are changing sea surface temperatures in the pacific and that is one-third of the entire planet " explains Rosencrans.
This change in wind pattern means that wind shear or winds changing with height becomes less over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western Atlantic. Making it more conductive for Thunderstorms to develop.
Rosencrans says, "If they run into those warm waters in the Atlantic they are more likely to develop. So those are the kinds of things that went into this outlook. When they all point in the same direction then we are confident in those high numbers and this wasn't a statistical fluke".
While we may not be directly along the coast, impacts can still be far inland. Damaging winds, tornadoes and flooding are some of the impacts we can see, which is why Rosencrans says knowing your risk is key.
"Starting now is the key with little bits. First you want to start by knowing your risk, you want to start with that for sure. Then you want to start with making a plan for those risk and identifying".
"We do the science and people say okay, I'm going to take that science and inform my decisions and we have a better, safer, more resilient country, that's the goal."
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