11 AM UPDATE: Ian to approach Gulf Coast as 'extremely dangerous hurricane,' track shifts just south of Tampa Bay

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Hurricane Ian, now a Category 3 storm emerged in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning with its sights set on the Tampa Bay area, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tampa Bay is currently under a hurricane warning, meaning hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected in the area in the next 48 hours.

On Monday, several Tampa Bay area counties issued evacuation orders on Monday. Residents living in Zones A and B in Hillsborough County, Zone A in Manatee County, Zones A, B and C in Pinellas County, and in Level A in Sarasota County are affected.

In its 11 a.m. advisory, the NHC said Ian was about 130 miles south-southwest of the Dry Tortugas and about 10 miles north-northeast of Pinar del Río, Cuba, packing maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.

The storm was moving north near 10 mph with hurricane-storm-force winds extending outward up to 35 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 115 miles from the eye.

The system is now a major hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen on Tuesday night and Wednesday and approach the Gulf Coast as an "extremely dangerous hurricane," the NHC said.

The path would put Ian just west of the Florida Keys Tuesday evening and near the west coast of Florida in the hurricane warning area on Wednesday.

"This morning two of our forecast models, the GFS and European models, came closer to agreeing. Both models turn the storm earlier to the east, potentially making landfall somewhere between Pinellas and Sarasota counties late Wednesday into early Thursday," said Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Leigh Spann.

The area could see 12 to 16 inches of rain with some areas seeing isolated amounts of up to 24 inches. The heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding and prolonged river flooding. A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday and Wednesday, the NHC said.

Tampa Bay and other parts of Florida are also under a storm surge warning, meaning the storm could raise water levels above normal tides.

According to the NHC, water could reach the following heights above ground in the following areas:

  • Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor (8 to 12 feet)
  • Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay (5 to10 feet)
  • Suwannee River to Anclote River (5 to 8 feet)
  • Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood, FL (5 to 8 feet)
  • Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor (4 to 7 feet)
  • Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee (4 to 7 feet)
  • Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable (3 to 5 feet)
  • Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River (2 to 4 feet)
  • East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay (2 to 4 feet)
  • Aucilla River to Suwannee River (2 to 4 feet)
  • Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas (2 to 4 feet)
  • Indian Pass to Aucilla River (1 to 3 feet)

Here is a list of watches and warnings in effect as of 11 a.m. Tuesday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
  • Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
  • Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
  • Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • Suwanee River southward to Flamingo
  • Tampa Bay
  • Dry Tortugas
  • Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
  • St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
  • Suwannee River to the Anclote River
  • Flamingo to Bonita Beach
  • Lower and Middle Florida Keys
  • Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound
  • Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:

  • Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
  • Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
  • Florida Bay
  • Aucilla River to Suwanee River
  • Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
  • South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • North of Anclote River to Suwannee River
  • South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • North of Suwannee River to Indian Pass
  • North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
  • SNorth of Suwannee River to Indian Pass
  • North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
  • South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo
  • Upper Florida Keys
  • Florida Bay

Tracking Hurricane Ian

>> Latest updates on Hurricane Ian

>> Live Max Defender 8 radar

>> Tampa Bay evacuations

>> Find your evacuation zone

>> Max Defender 8 Hurricane Guide

>> School closures

>> Where to find sandbags

>> Closures and cancellations

>> Download the Max Defender 8 app

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